CHANGING LANDSCAPES

With Ulster having an off week, I find myself thinking upon the changing landscape of European rugby.

Take, as a case in point, this season’s European finals. Both are Anglo-French affairs as Harlequins and Montpellier meet in the Challenge Cup final before Saracens meet Racing 92 in the showpiece that is the Champions’ Cup final. Should we deny those four their places in their respective finals then we would be fools as they have been the top four sides.

Where is the PRO12 representation? Somewhat ironically it was Connacht and the Dragons who proved our biggest challengers for European glory in the Challenge Cup and both have fallen at previous hurdles, while in the Champions’ Cup it was Ulster who came closest to reaching the last eight, pipped on tries scored for one of the best runner-up spots.

Instead we have reached the stage where only two PRO12 sides made it out of their pools in either competition and none made it to finals weekend in Lyon. With a severe deficit in spending between the PRO12 and the other two leagues, as well as caps on foreign imports placed on the provinces by the IRFU, it is simply a sad confirmation of a fact we already knew – the PRO12 sides cannot compete.

How are the Celtic sides meant to put up opposition to the star studded Racing 92 team?

At the weekend we saw Racing’s Springbok international centre Johannes Goosen helped off the pitch near the end of their game with Leicester. For most teams this would be a major blow, but who was his replacement? France international fly-half Remi Tales. How are we supposed to compete with that depth when we can only sign four players of that quality from abroad?

When all the teams in the competition aren’t operating on a level playing field then it’s easy to see where there will be problems. Unless a PRO12 team gets a rather fortuitous pool draw then they can kiss a knock-out place goodbye and can turn their focus back to domestic matters – something every PRO12 team in the Champions’ Cup had to do this year.

And not only are the teams different but the attendances are dwindling too.

Over the weekend we saw only 38,000 fans attend the two games combined. For the two semi-finals of the northern hemisphere’s supposedly elite competition. That is dreadful.

It’s a figure that sounds even worse when you consider that 45,000 fans descended on the AVIVA Stadium in 2012 to see Ulster defeat Edinburgh, and when you combine it with the other semi-final that weekend (Clermont vs Leinster in Bordeaux) it gives you a total attendance of 78,000 – more than double what was pulled in at the weekend.

You could put it down to the fact that the games were played at stadia with smaller capacities (24,000 for the Madejski Stadium and 30,500 for the City Ground) except for the fact that neither stadium was even close to being filled. In fact, it’s probably better the EPCR elected to play the games at smaller stadia – imagine how bad it would have looked on TV had the two games been played at Twickenham like they would have been done in the past.

The European Cup is dying a slow death.

EPCR cannot afford to have such shocking attendance figures in their semi-finals for another season otherwise they might have a few angry TV companies banging on their door wondering where the packed out stadia they’re supposed to be broadcasting have disappeared to. Not only that but the revenue they’ll be missing out on will be substantial too, even if they have increased ticket prices for the games.

Once the highest club competition in European (and possibly even world) rugby, the Champions’ Cup now represents the gulf in class between the PRO12 and its competitors. If the IRFU want the provinces to be competitive again then they have to look at amending their non-Irish qualified quota because none of the provinces, on current strength, will be returning to dine at the top table of Europe any time soon with their squad limits.

Instead, we’ll continue to watch the English and French take all the spoils for years to come.

GOING OUR WAY

As far as results went, last weekend couldn’t have gone better for Ulster.

They did what they needed to do over in Parma, Glasgow took down the Scarlets (rather handily too) to knock them out of the top four at our expense, Connacht kept Munster further down the table and more or less ruled them out of the top four race for good while Leinster did the same to Edinburgh on Friday night at the RDS Arena.

In fact, probably the only result that didn’t go in our favour was the Ospreys defeating Treviso on Friday night in Swansea. That said, if you were really expecting Treviso to do us a solid then you’re probably deluded.

The overall result of the weekend’s action? Ulster are now in control of their own destiny.

Beforehand we were still relying on other results to go our way for us to make our way back into the top four, but now that we’re one of those top four we know that two wins over Leinster and the Ospreys will guarantee us a fourth successive PRO12 semi-final appearance without needing to worry about what other teams are doing.

Not that we’re anywhere near close to being guaranteed our final four spot though. Leinster in a couple of weeks will be a fascinating match-up at the Kingspan Stadium as they aim to finish as top seeds in the league while the Ospreys are always a tough ask away from home, even if they do languish in ninth in the PRO12 table.

Of course we can still be done favours by other teams, even if we don’t need them. If the Dragons can rile themselves up for Judgment Day and defeat the Scarlets, while at the same time we defeat Leinster, then we will go into the final day of the season in the familiar position of knowing we’re finishing fourth in the league and being able to rest a few players before the knockout rugby begins.

Probably best not to think about that though.

We have a week off, where we get to sit back and watch Charles Piutau work his magic for Wasps in their Champions’ Cup semi-final against Saracens and eagerly await his arrival in Belfast next season, before we have to focus on taking apart Leinster. That must be our only aim at the moment – our trip to Swansea has to be put on the backburners until Leo Cullen’s men are dealt with.

The thing is, though, you get the feeling Ulster are going to do it – they just always seem to pull off a top four place no matter how unlikely it seems throughout the season. Even when we went through that mid-Six Nations slump when we lost to the Scarlets and Cardiff in successive weeks and things started to look a lot bleaker, there was still that belief that the top four wasn’t beyond us, and now you get the sense that we will do it.

That belief will be furthered by the return of a few players, especially Tommy Bowe who returned to the game as if he had never left it on Saturday. His first try was an excellent mix of power and pace to brush off the flailing tackle of Valerio Bernabo and still go over while his second try was an excellent read and interception, even if he did nearly drop it. His inclusion to an already talent-stocked back three will be huge going into the last few games of the season.

Not to mention we have Nick Williams coming back to add some power to the forwards and Wiehahn Herbst to reintroduce to the front row as well. Those two alone will add a lot of ballast to our pack, which we will need against the bruising Leinster eight, and again will provide a huge lift to our squad as we head into the final few weeks of the season.

It’s little things like that which can turn the tide in your favour and now that we’re on the inside looking out we will be desperate not to let anybody else back in. If we can ride the home support against Leinster and then carry that through to the week after in the Liberty Stadium then we should be able to pick up enough points to finish in the top four. Then we can look forward to another away semi-final and focus on trying to finally win one.

But first, let’s just get there to begin with.

TESTING THE DEPTH

It’s just Ulster’s injury luck for a player to get injured before even arriving in Belfast.

Our heart goes out to Marcell Coetzee – it’s hard for any player to hear the news that they’ll be sidelined for nine months, especially when it means he’s made his last appearance for his hometown Sharks as well. You can only hope he makes a speedy recovery that will see him hopefully make his Ulster debut before the end of the year.

The injury bug seems to be striking everyone right now too. Ulster seem destined to be without Nick Williams, Alan O’Connor, Stuart McCloskey and Louis Ludik again this weekend against Zebre and while it shouldn’t make a difference to the final outcome it’s better to have them available than not.

It’s a necessary reminder that rugby nowadays is a squad sport, and not just a competition of who can get the best 23 players for their team. Between the many injuries and international call-ups, Ulster haven’t been able to field their strongest team this season once (Saracens at home was probably the closest we came to that), further emphasising the need for quality dripping down throughout the squad and not just at the top ranks.

It’ll be tested towards the end of the season.

It seems to be fate that O’Connor will play no further part this year while Ludik and Williams have been struggling with persistent niggles all season – there’s three key individuals who we could be facing a very crucial run-in without. Those are the positions we need our squad players to step up into and prove their worth in our set-up.

Guys like Pete Browne and Sean Reidy will have to slot into the gaps left by O’Connor and Williams and bolster our pack. But, to their credit, both have already impressed this season so far – Browne offers a strong carrying option in the second row while Reidy has excelled at the breakdown and has been probably Ulster’s breakout player of the season.

Ludik’s loss is offset by the return of a certain Tommy Bowe from injury – remember him? – while McCloskey’s loss is only softened by the fact that Ulster have a seemingly never-ending list of talented centres ready to slot into the squad. Stuart Olding will probably replace him – equally as talented in a different way.

But it’s a reflection that Ulster still need squad depth.

While the backs stocks seem to be relatively deep, the same cannot be said for the forwards. With Williams out, Saturday’s game should provide an opportunity to give either Stephen Mulholland another shot at number eight or potentially start Academy number eight Lorcan Dow after his man of the match performance against Munster A last week.

If Dow can build on that appearance against Treviso earlier in the season then there is some real potential for him to even take the 8 shirt on a more regular basis, especially next season in the period of time between Coetzee arriving and actually being available to play for us. Even if he’s not ready then the ever-reliable Roger Wilson is on standby for us, but this is a glorious opportunity to look at some of our young options.

Because it’s all well and good bringing in players of Coetzee’s calibre and also Charles Piutau in the backs, but if you’re not producing the young talent to go with it then you’re still going to struggle. Ulster are going to be away in the semi-finals of the PRO12 this season and you can probably chalk that down to the two defeats to the Scarlets and Cardiff during the Six Nations – times when we relied on our squad depth.

Rugby is no longer a 23-man game.

I feel like we have improved our depth, especially from previous seasons. Our backs are littered with quality – even our young players such as Sammy Arnold and Rory Scholes have stepped up admirably when called upon – and some of the forwards have made an impact too such as the aforementioned Browne and Reidy.

There is still room to improve, however, and Les will know that. Acquisitions like Rodney Ah You, Kieran Treadwell and Brett Herron for next season will undoubtedly have improved our depth, but there’s also a requirement to fill from within with the likes of Dow, John Andrew, Dave Shanahan and Jacob Stockdale continuing to get chances in the first team when possible.

Games like this weekend should provide opportunities to give those guys some chance of impressing the coaching staff, however sadly this game has come at a time in the season where Ulster need the five points, end of. That means a full team will be out on the pitch going all guns blazing for the 80 minutes.

The young names will bide their time for another day.

NO GOOD FRIDAY

Friday’s defeat to Glasgow has left Ulster’s play-off hopes looking rather bleak.

Admittedly not many fans would have expected Les Kiss’ men to go to Scotstoun and pick up all four points, especially since Gregor Townsend was able to call upon the services of 18 of his Scottish internationals for the game, but even so, this result has marked a new low in Ulster’s already turbulent season.

Before the game even began the questions began to fly as to why their international trio of Rory Best, Jared Payne and Andrew Trimble didn’t make the trip despite being available for selection. Undoubtedly this was going to be one of their biggest games of the season and whenever Munster and Leinster announced their teams stacked full of their Ireland contingent you wondered why Ulster hadn’t done the same.

Post-match the decision looked even more bizarre. Perhaps Ulster still wouldn’t have held on to their lead if Best, Payne and Trimble were in the wings to be brought on, but you can guarantee it would have been a closer game if they had. You’d certainly expect the leadership qualities of those three men coming on off the bench would have been a huge lift, especially if they had come on just after Hogg’s try.

That said, maybe it is better to focus on what we know as opposed to the endless ifs that we can muster.

What we do know is that the Ulstermen faded fast towards the end of the game. In the first half they were holding strong in defence and the endless penalty concessions weren’t a major concern. Down by four points and chasing the game with ten minutes to play, that was a time for cool heads. Instead both Robbie Diack and Rob Herring gave away ridiculous penalties in the 22 that just compounded Ulster’s errors into points for the opposition.

Hogg’s penalty sealed something of the inevitable – even when Russell missed a straightforward effort a few minutes earlier you got the sense that Ulster would find a way to leave Scotland with nothing and they did. How ironic that after 79 minutes of completely even scrums, the very last one of the game capitulated and cost Ulster a point they probably just about deserved.

It means Les Kiss has to go back to the drawing board and try and work out how on earth his side fell apart towards the latter stages of the game and ended up getting nothing. It could very well be a simple case of tiredness on the part of the visitors who gave everything in defence and at the breakdown for 55 minutes before the tide turned and the hosts’ international quality off the bench took over.

Combined with the Scarlets’ unlikely win away to the Ospreys (where Ulster still need to go on the last day of the season), it makes Friday’s game against league leaders Connacht massively important. If Ulster still harbour any top four ambitions (and they are by no means out of the running yet) then all four of their remaining games become must wins. Any slip-ups from here to the end of the season and they can kiss that play-off place goodbye.

And yet, of course, they know that.

In fact it is unbelievable to state the fact that Ulster’s Champions’ Cup spot is not guaranteed for next season either. With Edinburgh and Cardiff making steady headway in the background, should Ulster fail to pick up at least two, if not three, wins over the course of the remainder of the season then they are in serious jeopardy of missing out on the top table of European rugby next season.

Fighting on two fronts will not be easy, and it’s probably going to come down to the old cliché of “taking each game as it comes”. After Connacht we go to Zebre away which tripped us up last season, then the old rivals Leinster roll into Belfast before we finally head to Swansea to take on the Ospreys. Truth is there are no easy games left and it will take a huge squad effort to get us over the line – be that for top four qualification or even just European qualification.

Best, Payne and Trimble will be back this week. Some will still question where they were last week. However that no longer matters – the Glasgow game needs parked immediately and Connacht needs to be the main focus. Four points is the only outcome there that will do because if we lose another home game then the mountain becomes even bigger.

Not that it was that small to begin with.