IRELAND'S HOKEY-COKEY

Who’s in, who’s out, and who’s getting shaken all about? Time to take to look…

He is…the elephant in the room (Unknown)

He’s either the first name on the teamsheet or he’s staying in Ireland – yes of course I’m talking about Cian Healy. If he’s fit, Healy goes and he starts as Ireland’s loosehead prop, of that there is no question. If he’s semi-fit then Schmidt has a massive call to make – bring him just in case but risk the possibility of his injury woes lingering on, or leave Ireland’s best prop at home with the possibility that he may recover in time. If he’s not fit, Ireland have a problem.

They should be…booking their plane ticket (Definites)

Rory Best is nailed on at hooker, while injury to Marty Moore means Mike Ross has the tighthead jersey under wraps as well. Across the scrum Jack McGrath has solidified his position as Cian Healy’s understudy and should make the plane too. Captain Paul O’Connell and lock partner Devin Toner will definitely be there, while one suspects the versatility of Iain Henderson will guarantee him a spot in the 31-man squad as well, with Schmidt making no secret that the utility man is a favourite of his. The reliable back row trio of Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip are also definites.

Conor Murray faces very little opposition at scrum-half, so will travel, while being the world’s best number ten probably just about clinches Jonathan Sexton’s place. Given how well their centre partnership went during the Six Nations you would expect Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne to be in there somewhere, while Rob Kearney is another whose position is under very little threat.

They should be…booking refundable accommodation (Probables)

Leinster player of the season Sean Cronin will be Best’s deputy at hooker, with Leinster team-mate Richardt Strauss third choice. Michael Bent’s ability to play both sides of the scrum will make him a good choice as the fifth prop in the squad, while a speedy recovery from injury should set up a spot for Marty Moore. Donnacha Ryan has seemingly banished his injury woes and should be the reserve lock, while groundhog openside Chris Henry and big-carrying Jordi Murphy will provide back row cover.

In the absence of any better scrum-halves, Eoin Reddan will probably get the nod as the back-up scrum-half. As has been the norm for Joe Schmidt, it’s more than likely both Paddy Jackson and Ian Madigan will travel as fly-half cover, with the Ulsterman seen as a starter and the Leinsterman as a versatile bench option, covering inside centre and full-back too. As far as the outside backs go, both wing spots are up for grabs, as well as the two back-up positions too. Schmidt is a big fan of Andrew Trimble, so fitness permitting he will probably travel, as will Ulster team-mate Tommy Bowe. From there it’s a toss-up between three or four for the two places left, with Munster duo Keith Earls and Simon Zebo presumably the preferred choices.

They should be…packing a bag just in case (Possibles)

Should Cian Healy fail to make it then Dave Kilcoyne will be called-up as the backup loosehead, that’s more or less a given. Despite being axed from the squad, one injury to a hooker could open the door for Rob Herring to sneak in, while Nathan White will also be optimistic about his chances, especially given he can cover both sides like Bent. Jack Conan’s meteoric rise at Leinster means he’s not completely out of the reckoning for an Ireland spot either.

Kieran Marmion should be the third choice scrum-half after Isaac Boss’ horror show against Scotland and Munster fly-half Ian Keatley may still harbour some faint hope that he can make it too, especially if Sexton or Jackson pull out before the tournament. Darren Cave’s newfound ability to play both inside and outside centre will make him an intriguing possibility for Schmidt, and may yet be included in the squad as cover for both Henshaw and Payne. And don’t rule out Dave Kearney from the back three equation – Rob’s brother is a consistent, if not spectacular, performer.

They should be…preparing for Pro12 rugby (Unlikelies)

Ulster’s Dan Tuohy has already been axed from the squad and it seems unlikely he’ll be added back. The same applies for Isaac Boss who had a dreadful outing against Scotland, and if the Kiwi was included ahead of either Reddan or Marmion then serious questions would be asked. Munster full-back Felix Jones has been favoured by Schmidt recently, but the coach’s decision to try out Simon Zebo at full-back against Scotland perhaps puts an end to his hopes. Regardless of being the Pro12’s top try scorer last season, Craig Gilroy has been bizarrely and unfairly overlooked completely and seems destined to miss out too, and, despite the chance of one big final hurrah, Gordon D’Arcy’s international career looks like its race has been run as well.