Friday 22 May 2015

DEJA VU

I recall living this week rather recently…

The cynic among us will stipulate that the fourth try was conceded rather softly last Saturday so that we ensured we’d be heading back to Scotstoun this Friday rather than down to Limerick or across the pond to Swansea – I cannot possibly say whether that is true or not (I firmly suspect it is not), however what I can say is that we hold a significant advantage over our opponents this Friday.

It’s not too dissimilar to what we faced against Leinster a few weeks ago where they were travelling north to face us just five days after taking a physical battering against Toulon. In the same way, Glasgow certainly did not find last week’s encounter the walk over I’m sure they suspected it to be and will have a few bruised bodies heading into this week’s semi-final. Louis Ludik and Chris Henry aside, we have a rested side ready to go.

One suspects that Gregor Townsend will do his usual trick of chopping and changing quite a few members of his side, as has been his forté throughout the season, in order to keep his team fresh and to keep us guessing to a certain extent, but the core of the team will be unchanged and will still be feeling a little worse for wear having gone through 80 minutes against us already.

That’s not saying we’re favourites though – because we’re not.

Glasgow finished top of the table for a reason: they can chop and change at will and get away with it. While we headed to Zebre earlier in the season with many changes to the team and got our just desserts, Glasgow have that ability to call on squad players to step up and do a similar job to that of their first teamers – and as such they have been able to win all the tight games that have propelled them to the top of the domestic standings.

That’s where we may be found wanting this weekend. We have some good players in reserve, but when we lose a few first line stars then we begin to see our resources stretched. With Wiehahn Herbst, Nick Williams, Andrew Trimble, Franco van der Merwe and Stuart Olding all missing, you start to see where Ulster’s require a bit of good fortune. Of course, you do not want a player to get injured, but you still have to plan for it.

The records are firmly against us – no side has ever won an away semi-final in the Pro12, and no visiting side has come away from Scotstoun Stadium this season with four points. So in order for us to keep our hunt for silverware going and keep that dream of winning the Pro12 at the Kingspan Stadium alive then we have to take away the league’s only remaining perfect home record.

Sound difficult? You bet.

But I would like to remind you of the example of Wallace High School this season. They went unbeaten all season and made the final of the Schools’ Cup – they looked destined to go all the way and win their first ever Schools’ Cup title. Alas it was not to be as the only side they did not overcome all season, RBAI (having drawn 19-19 earlier in the year) defeated them in the final at the Kingspan. They saved their one loss of the season to the very last game: the most important one.

If Neil Doak is wise he will draw on that. No side is unbeatable and every side has their weaknesses that are there to be exploited by a team that knows how to expose them. And that’s why last Saturday was a perfect dry run – Glasgow fielded a full strength side and went hell for leather trying to secure that home semi-final, and gave us a good look at what we can expect from them this week too.

What to work on? Closing down Finn Russell would be a good start, although given the strength of this week’s side that probably won’t be too much of a concern, while limiting the ball carrying ability of both Jonny Gray and Josh Strauss won’t be too far behind on the priorities list either. Glasgow’s kick chase is also a strong part of their game, and with Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy both back we should see an improvement in fielding those high bombs from Russell, Horne and Hogg.

Where are Glasgow’s weaknesses? They don’t have many, but certainly their defence around the fringes isn’t as strong as Townsend would like it to be, their maul defence is rather lacklustre too, while the possibility of Nikola Matawalu on the wing is an opportunity not to be passed up – the little Fijian is a handful in attack, but quite the opposite when faced with a rampaging forward.

I could spout the usual mumbo jumbo regarding how we should get an early score on the board and silence the Scotstoun crowd, but the harsh reality of this week is that we need an 80 minute performance that will rival anything we’ve brought to the table so far this season. If we can produce a similar performance to that which saw off the Scots back in October then we stand a very good chance of bucking the trend and winning away in the semi-finals.

Just one 80 minute performance and we’re home for the final.

Tuesday 12 May 2015

COSTLY CARD

Where to begin?

There will be a lot of divided opinion this week on whether or not Owens was right. In fact, it’s possibly better to go back and look at the incident itself before we analyse whether the Welshman was correct in his assessment that Henderson’s clear out on Ronan O’Mahony was indeed dangerous and worthy of the red card he received.

Firstly, and one thing that will go against Iain, is the fact that the ball had already been won by Ulster – the ball was coming back for the home side and Ruan Pienaar was in close proximity to get the pass away. Of course, that does not stop Henderson coming in and making the clear out, he is perfectly entitled to do so since Pienaar has not yet picked up the ball and since O’Mahony is in the ruck, but when there is clean ball and no contest for it, it doesn't make much sense to wade in.

Secondly is the fact that O’Mahony is retreating – another point that may go against the flanker. In fact, when you go back and watch the incident it is questionable as to how much the winger is even affecting the ruck, it simply looks like he’s been caught in the wrong place at the wrong time before being walloped by the rampaging flanker. Similarly to how the ball was already won, it begs the question why Henderson would enter the ruck to clear out a player not affecting its outcome.

As for the connection, that’s anybody’s guess.

On first look, to me it did look like it was the forearm that Henderson led with and that it was it that connected with O’Mahony, but the more I now watch it back, the more I think there is a clash of heads between the two players. Of course that was not intentional and Henderson was by no means trying to decapitate a member of the opposition, but it makes for ugly viewing. You can see why Owens was well within his rights to go for red.

And I do not attribute to Stuart Barnes’ belief that Henderson lost his footing - or at least I don’t think it affects Henderson’s defence. Henderson runs in from a distance and is committed to clearing O’Mahony out – the only way he was stopping short of that ruck was if he tripped and fell on his face before he reached the melee. Once he reached the breakdown he was committed to whatever he had decided to do, in this case that being making sure O’Mahony was no longer in the ruck.

The main point that I would like to raise, however, is that this is the unfortunate culmination of a physical sport.

Is Henderson’s ruck entry wildly different to how other players enter the breakdown normally? No.
Is there a genuine risk of a clash of heads at every breakdown? Yes.
Is there a clash of heads at every breakdown? No.

What we have seen is a player being sent off for a perfectly legal clear out that unfortunately culminated in the two players banging heads, and sadly that has resulted in Henderson being shown a red card. I would put money on nothing being done whatsoever had Henderson hit O’Mahony in the chest or around the waist – once again, like in the Goode/Payne incident, the player lying on the ground has influenced the decision more than the incident itself.

My feeling is that the hearing should rescind the red card for the good of rugby. If a player is genuinely dangerous like Seremaia Bai was for Leicester on Saturday then by all means throw the book at them, but in cases like Henderson’s, accept it was an accident that unfortunately had a painful ending and move on. It will make no difference, Henderson will get a lengthy ban no doubt and will miss Ulster’s final two or three games in the Guinness Pro12 – a massive loss.

The draw hasn't helped Ulster either. Now needing a win in Glasgow, as well as either the Dragons to triumph in Cork or Connacht to overturn the Ospreys, to get a home semi-final it doesn't bode too well for Neil Doak’s men. It is more than doable of course, and Ulster will still have their momentum boost despite not getting all four points out last weekend’s encounter, but the outlook certainly seems a little bleaker than it was at 2:30 on Saturday. It looks likely we’ll be on the road for our semi-final, a position from which no side has ever won before.


Then again, records are there to be broken.

Thursday 7 May 2015

CHAMPION MATERIAL


As Toulon and Clermont battled it out at a half-empty Twickenham on Saturday, I couldn’t help but laugh.

 

It is a sad reflection on how the Champions’ Cup has fallen astoundingly short of the hype that surrounded it, and now that it has finally come to its disappointing finish – Clermont’s self-implosion capping off another Toulon dominated tournament – we can focus on the only tournament we have a chance of winning this season, the Pro12.

 

Maybe it is because Ulster were knocked out back in January, but certainly the Pro12 has provided a lot more excitement than the Champions Cup this season, and the excitement continues this weekend with the visit of Munster continuing the road to the play-offs as we look to secure that home semi-final that could be the difference between being at the Kingspan on the 30th May for the final itself or watching it on TV at home.

 

Now is not the time to mess up.

 

So far this season we have been exemplary at home – thirteen games played, twelve wins; our only defeat against Toulon who, on the day, were phenomenal. That record simply has to continue if we want to stand any chance whatsoever of finishing in the top two given the fact we have Glasgow away next weekend – it’s win against Munster or we will be on our travels in the semi-finals, a position from which no side has ever advanced to the final.

 

We did very well to see off Leinster, however I think in the back of our heads we were all thinking “Leinster were tired”. Even so, we played them perfectly and, as a result, we got the right outcome on the night and sent them back to Dublin knowing that they would not play any part in the play-offs. Tactically, we got it right a couple of weeks ago – this week we need to be equally as smart when Axel Foley and co. arrive in town.

 

Munster will be more of a challenge than Leinster were. On paper Leinster maybe look like the stronger side, but mentally and physically Munster will be a step above what Leinster were when they played us, and Doak will be aware of that. They will be equally as fresh as we are, probably more so as they only had to play Treviso while we had to see off Leinster, and since they have a home semi-final to compete for as well, they are just as aware as we are as to what they require to achieve that.

 

But this is where Ulster earn their stripes.

 

We are still the form side in the Pro12 and we should fear nobody at the Kingspan Stadium nowadays, given the fact that we haven’t been beaten there so far this season by any Pro12 club. It’s a goal that I feel we should be achieving every year so one more victory will guarantee us that success. And with our recent record of results there should be absolutely no doubt in our mind that we can indeed take down the Munstermen on Saturday.

 

Iain Henderson has been a revelation for us since returning from injury and is revelling in his free reign at blindside flanker, and he has improved a dominant pack led by Rory Best – and they will be sternly tested by Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony’s forward division who are renowned for being one of the most physical units in the whole league. However, we have the pack to take them on and beat them, as we have done to teams all season when we weren’t given a chance.

 

And then of course our backs are possibly the most potent in the entire of Europe, and they are only getting stronger as the weeks go on. Craig Gilroy is in the form of his life on the wing and is scoring tries for fun while Ruan Pienaar and Paddy Jackson are linking up like neither were ever injured this season and are really getting the men outside them moving.

 

Suddenly our side looks like a well-oiled machine that could just spark into a phenomenal performance that shocks the rugby world into submission.

 

Currently, you would be a very very brave man to bet against us notching a third consecutive interprovincial victory and propelling ourselves into the top two of the Pro12. Still, it’s always wise to guard against complacency, especially given this will be possibly our toughest test of the season so far and with so much at stake anything can happen in front of the Sky cameras on a Saturday afternoon.

 

Don’t look away for even one second.