IRELAND GO FOR JOE

So there you go. Completely out of the blue, Ireland announced that their new coach is Leinster coach Joe Schmidt, who will take over for the 2013 Guinness Series in the autumn. Safe to say he was probably the most popular choice considering his success with the Dublin-based province. Two Heineken Cup trophies in the last three years speak for themselves.

However, I would not agree with those people. While I agree that Joe Schmidt is a brilliant coach, I feel he has his fundamental flaws too, and much like outgoing coach Declan Kidney, I feel he will be biased towards his most familiar province and in the big 50/50 calls he will go for the Leinster player instead.

By far he’s the best coach that IRFU have hired in a long time and he will drill the Ireland players into shape. Schmidt is a coach that focuses on very firmly on the basics and sometimes that’s exactly what teams need to get right to be successful. His style of play has undoubtedly been successful with Leinster, and now Southern hemisphere styles are being adopted at Ulster and Munster too and are showing early signs of success too. Even Connacht are introducing a new Southern hemisphere coach in Pat Lam next season.

Schmidt shouldn’t have to change this style of play for his new job – as I’ve said, the players of the provinces will be used to it by now. That was probably one of the problems that Ireland have had over the last few years. Players would join the national side and have to change their game plans entirely to suit Declan Kidney’s style. Not ideal for an international side looking to be successful on a regular basis.

I’ll give Schmidt a chance, but I can’t help feeling this is very similar to the Kidney scenario. For now it may seem like a good appointment but a few games in and we can fully judge just how well Joe is doing. I just can’t shake the feeling that the New Zealander will favour the players he’s been working with since 2010 though.

Nevertheless, good luck to the Kiwi. He’s got my backing for now…

All-French affair – almost

But for Leinster’s simplistic win over Biarritz, both the Amlin Challenge Cup final and the Heineken Cup final would have featured four French teams. After Stade Francais booked their place in the RDS on the Friday night, Leinster spoiled the Basque party by romping home to a 44-16 win over the defending champions on Saturday afternoon.

I watched the games in envy, wishing Ulster were playing instead. As it was we were beaten soundly at Twickenham at the start of the month and Saracens rightfully took their place in the semi-finals against Toulon, again at English rugby’s HQ. And there they were outclassed by the big-spending French side.

Jonny Wilkinson was perfect with the boot, landing two drop goals and six penalties to hand Toulon a rather simple 24-12 win, with Owen Farrell managing four penalties in reply. For all their potential, Saracens limped out rather weakly, not mustering any real chances to cross the opposition try line, and any that did drop their way were spurned. The right team most certainly won.

A day before in Montpellier it was a much closer affair with Clermont squeezing past Munster by a scoreline of 16-10. With the side from the Auvergne striking early and taking a quick lead through a try from Napolioni Nalaga, it seemed like the home side were going to stroll to their first Heineken Cup final. However, a spirited Munster side fought back bravely and Ronan O’Gara masterminded a clever try for Denis Hurley which set up a nervy finish. But Clermont held on and are now clear favourites to win the tournament outright. They will have to improve dramatically on that performance if they wish to do so though.

It all kicked off on Friday and you have to commend Stade Francais full-back Jerome Porical who held his nerve to kick a 60 metre penalty to level the scores late on in their game against Perpignan, and then hammer the final nail into the home side’s coffin with a 79^th minute penalty and send the Parisian team to Dublin. If he was feeling nervous, Porical certainly didn't show it and now will get to do it all again against Leinster in three weeks' time.

It’s delicately poised and all eyes will be on Ireland in May, as Europe’s two pinnacle competitions come to a close with what will be two very evenly contested finals…

ERC FINALS

Friday 17^th May, 20:00

Amlin Challenge Cup Final

Stade Francais v Leinster Rugby

RDS Arena

Saturday 18^th May, 17:00

Heineken Cup Final

ASM Clermont Auvergne v RC Toulon

Aviva Stadium

BEST OF THE WEST

You can’t fault Ulster one bit – they are doing everything they need to do and more in their final matches and it has left them in the perfect position to finish top of the Pro12 table. Friday’s win over Connacht means the Ulstermen only need a draw on the last weekend of the regular season to secure that coveted first place.

They laboured to the victory however. Up until about the 60^th minute Connacht were pushing all the way for a victory of their own which would keep their own Heineken Cup hopes alive, but after Tommy Bowe cruised over for Ulster’s bonus point try, the home resistance crumbled and Jared Payne was able to brush aside their defence to get a fifth try.

It wasn’t a rampant win and it certainly wasn’t perfect either, but it was enough to get the five points on offer. Considering Connacht were unbeaten at the Sportsground in 2013 up until the match, it was a very impressive win. Even more impressive when you consider that only two sides have beaten Connacht with bonus points in Galway this season – Ulster and the Scarlets.

One of the try scorers however, stole all the plaudits: Stuart Olding. His rise to fame has been incredible – he wasn’t even being considered for selection at the start of the season, but now he is an integral part of Ulster’s back line in the absence of Paddy Wallace and Luke Marshall. It’s hard to believe that he is only 20 because he plays with such confidence and skill. He is really causing a selection headache at centre for next season.

And another player who is really impressing as the season goes on is Iain Henderson. His immense strength and footwork to shrug off so many defenders to set up Tommy Bowe for his try was incredible and despite only making a 20 minute cameo at the end of the match, he more than played his part. If Stephen Ferris is indeed making his departure to Japan at the end of the season then Ulster seem to have an able young replacement in Henderson.

But Mark Anscombe will have a few things to work out, none more so than another slow start from his side. A few small errors allowed George Naoupu to stroll over for a try in the third minute to give Connacht an early lead and Ulster were struggling to get going. Anscombe will also have to work on Ulster’s attack as well and being clinical. They had plenty of chances early in the second half to seal the fourth try but they could not cross the line. Ulster are far from the finished article.

Nevertheless, another five points is wrapped up and Ulster are marching onwards to the Pro12 play-offs. If they can keep up this intensity until the end of the season then a first trophy since 2005 could be on the cards for the Ulstermen, even if they’d have to win it Dublin. Safe to say, it will take a very good team to stop them…

Warriors’ battle cry

If Ulster are setting out their stall for the play-offs, then Glasgow are bringing out the big guns. Since Christmas the Scottish side have been in inspired form, and this weekend they walked in five tries against fellow play-off hopefuls the Ospreys – a win which secures their play-off place. As for the Ospreys, it means they will have to hope for close to a miracle as they will have to win away to Leinster and then hope that the Scarlets lose at home to Treviso in order to clinch fourth place.

Talking of the Scarlets, they had an impressive win of their own at home to the Cardiff Blues. It puts them firmly in the driving seat for that final play-off spot – a win on the final day over Treviso would put them into the knockouts.

A massive congratulations to the Newport-Gwent Dragons as well who came back superbly after losing in Ravenhill only a week ago to defeat Munster at the Rodney Parade. Even though the away team were considerably weakened due to their mind being on the Heineken Cup semi-final this weekend it is a great achievement for the Welsh side and a result they can be proud of this season.

Permutations

Now that we only have one match left of the regular season, fans can start to look at who will be in the play-offs and who won’t be, so I have created a helpful guide for you. Enjoy!

Already in the play-offs: Ulster, Leinster, Glasgow Warriors

Can still qualify: Scarlets, Ospreys

Fourth place

The Scarlets will qualify if they draw or win next weekend at home to Treviso.

The Ospreys will qualify if they win away to Leinster next weekend and the Scarlets lose without any bonus points.

First place

Ulster will finish top if they win or draw at home to Cardiff next weekend.

Leinster will finish top if they win at home to the Ospreys next weekend and Ulster lose.

Glasgow will finish top if they win away to Connacht with a bonus point and both Ulster and Leinster lose.

GO WEST

Rather aptly, Ulster’s famous song “Stand up for the Ulstermen” has the same tune as the Pet Shop Boys’ equally famous hit “Go West”. And west is where Ulster find themselves this weekend as they take on the most westerly based club in Ireland and all of European rugby – Connacht.

You have to go back to September 2009 for Ulster’s last win in Galway, a resounding 30-6 win which included tries for Ian Humphreys, BJ Botha, Darren Cave and Timoci Nagusa. Fast forward three and a half years and only one of those players features in Ulster’s squad this season.

He starts in Ulster’s chase for top spot in the Pro12…

Mixed build-up

Approaching this match, Ulster have made a press statement, released yesterday. And it was extremely controversial.

In said press statement Ulster Rugby CEO Shane Logan revealed that if Ulster get to the final of the RaboDirect Pro12 and have “home” advantage, then the match will be played in the RDS Arena in Dublin since Ravenhill does not meet the capacity requirements for a Pro12 final. Considering where Ulster are in the league, this is a high possibility.

Why the controversy? Two reasons. One, throughout the season Ulster have been reassuring fans that the stadium would be ready in time for any Pro12 final. In fact, whenever the building project initially began they had hoped to have the two stands ready in time for the Heineken Cup quarter-finals at the start of this month! However the stadium will not be completed in time and this is the cause for the change of venue.

However, the second reason is possibly more important. The way the league is going it looks very much like Ulster’s opponents in the final of the Pro12 would be Leinster, whose home ground is obviously the RDS. So not only would Ulster be giving up their home advantage, but they would also be handing it straight over to the “away” side which could be a massive boost for them. However, this will only happen if Leinster are Ulster’s final opponents.

It is a kick in the teeth for Ulster fans. After watching their team do so well at the start of the season, slowly slide down the table during the Six Nations, then find their form once again afterwards, it really is a blow to find out that if they do get to the final then they will have to travel all the way down to Dublin to a ground that isn’t theirs to support their team.

It’s a very tricky scenario. The move from Ravenhill was inevitable since the stadium wasn’t ready, but after Ulster claiming all season that the stadium would be ready, where did it go wrong? As mere fans we probably will never know, but there will definitely be a degree of discontent in the fans.

But that is for another time. There is a match on Friday night, and with a win, Ulster will guarantee themselves a place in the Pro12 play-offs. Connacht are the opponents, and they too still have a slim possibility of something to play for – an automatic Heineken Cup spot for next season.

Currently the Westies sit twelve points behind Munster in ninth and with three games left they can still mathematically overtake their provincial rivals. No matter how unlikely their chances may be, while they still have a chance they will fight. And Ulster will have to be wary of this. Connacht are a tough side, but when they are in the so-called “last chance saloon” they become even trickier to beat, especially in the windy atmosphere of the Sportsground.

For Ulster they will simply have to play their normal game. Play the basics right and that should be enough to beat the men from Galway. With all of their best players back and raring to go in the run in to the play-offs there will be no more excuses. After going out of the Heineken Cup two weeks ago to Saracens, only one thing will make up for it: the Pro12 title.

Will they keep the run going? I think they will, but they will have to do the job against a resilient Connacht side. It should be a tightly contested match but Ulster should have enough to win handily. Bonus point? Not this time. But Ulster will take the win – any win. Prediction – Ulster by 17.

Connacht Rugby vs. Ulster Rugby

Friday 17^th April, 19:45

Galway Sportsground

RaboDirect Pro12, Round 21

Live on BBC2 NI and TG4

CONNACHT RUGBY

15. Robbie Henshaw, 14. Danie Poolman, 13. Eoin Griffin, 12. Brian Murphy, 11. Gavin Duffy, 10. Dan Parks, 9. Kieran Marmion; 1. Brett Wilkinson, 2. Adrian Flavin, 3. Ronan Loughney, 4. Michael Swift, 5. Mike McCarthy, 6. Mick Kearney, 7. John Muldoon, 8. George Naoupu.

16. Ethienne Reynecke, 17. Rodney Ah You, 18. JP Cooney, 19. Andrew Browne, 20. Mata Fifita, 21. Paul O’Donohoe, 22. Miah Nikora, 23. Fetu’u Vainokolo.

ULSTER RUGBY

15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Stuart Olding, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. Ricky Lutton, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. John Afoa, 19. Johann Muller, 20. Iain Henderson, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Mike Allen, 23. Peter Nelson.

Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU)

Assistant Referees: Leo Colgan, Barrie O’Connell (both IRFU)

Citing Commissioner: Eugene Ryan (IRFU)

TMO: Seamus Flannery (IRFU)

ULSTER SLAY THE DRAGONS

Back on the top of the Pro12 tree, Ulster are now in the prime position to finish top of the table once again and with a bonus point win, Ulster have got back into the flow of things after their disappointing loss in Twickenham.

They cut through their opponents with ease and but for a few unlucky breaks, the scoreline could have been a lot worse. But the scoreline isn’t what will please Mark Anscombe the most – it is the match points and the performance to go with it.

Two games left to secure top spot…

Professional and precise

There were a lot of very good individual performances on display at Ravenhill too, especially from Ulster’s younger players. More specifically, from eventual Man of the Match Stuart Olding and newly-capped Ireland player Iain Henderson.

Being stuck behind Paddy Wallace and Luke Marshall in the Ulster reckoning must have been frustrating for young Olding but in the absence of the other two, the Ireland U20 star has excelled, drawing the plaudits in his matches and proving that he too can challenge the first teamers for their spots. If his first few games are anything to go by, he has a bright future ahead of him.

Henderson did what he did best – made several strong runs and attacked the breakdown with ferocity. At the age of just 21 he has the brute strength of someone much older than he and even playing in the unfamiliar position of lock he didn’t look one bit out of place. Another young player with a very promising future, and possibly a replacement for the departing Stephen Ferris.

Beyond them there were many good performances too, all over the park. Rory Best was back to his usual form with a great performance all round, proving his critics that he can still lead the Lions to Australia. Also throwing their hats into the Lions ring are Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy who both had sparkling performances on the wing, with the former having a point to prove after being injured last December.

Another honourable mention has to go to Ricky Lutton who has really impressed over his last two matches. Thrown in at the deep end against Leinster, he deserved his start this weekend and he didn’t disappoint. He was strong in the scrum and he made his presence known around the pitch as well. If he gets more game time, Ulster may have unearthed a hidden gem.

Probably the most impressive thing about Ulster’s performance was their professionalism. They didn’t do anything rash or stupid and they were well disciplined in defence too. Anscombe wanted a reaction after Twickenham, and he more or less got it. The game itself may have been rather scrappy but Ulster came away with the four tries and the win and that’s all that mattered.

So now Ulster head west to Galway in the hope of securing a home semi-final. A win of any kind would guarantee that, but a loss would throw them right back into the middle of a dogfight for the top two. It won’t be easy either, because as unlikely as their chances may be, Connacht are still battling to qualify for the Heineken Cup as one of the top three Irish sides. A win over the league leaders would be an incredible boost for their morale.

But Ulster will have most of their big names back. From here on in it will have to be a fully committed effort from every player in order to finish top of the league, and then go on and win the tournament outright.

And it will be all that the Ulstermen deserve.

Leinster crank up the pressure

Everyone knows it’s not easy for teams to go away to Thomond Park and win, but Leinster did exactly that on Saturday night and now sit three points behind Ulster in second looking to try and leapfrog their provincial rivals into first. It was rather fitting that the returning Brian O’Driscoll scored the winning try for the Dublin side and they have sent out a marker to the rest of the Pro12 – this time they want to win it.

Across the water it was good news for Ulster and Leinster fans as the Scarlets did a job over Glasgow and beat them handily at the Parc y Scarlets. It allowed Ulster and Leinster to jump above the Scottish side and the first signs of cracks began to appear in the Glaswegians’ armour. Proof that not all sides are invincible, no matter how good they seem.

Final congratulations to Ulster’s opponents this week, Connacht. Away to Edinburgh they battled their way to an impressive 32-24 win which takes them into ninth in the table, only twelve points behind Munster with a game in hand. They will not be pushovers on Friday.

OUTCLASSED AND OUT OF THE CUP

It was simply too much for Ulster to handle, Saracens played superbly in Twickenham on Saturday.

Hopes were high, the team were buzzing after their superb win over Leinster, but their performance on the day let them down. Not to take anything away from Saracens who played extremely well themselves, executing their gameplan to perfection, but Ulster’s performance definitely could have been better.

What went wrong for Ulster isn’t quite clear. Maybe the occasion got to them, similarly to the last time they graced the Twickenham pitch. Certainly they did not live up to the hype they were being given. Quite possibly the win over Leinster worked against them instead of for them – it gave them a false sense of security. Leinster definitely weren’t at their best on Easter Saturday.

But that definitely isn’t an excuse that the Ulstermen can use for their loss. In fact they can’t really use any excuse – they were, as my title suggests, outclassed by their opposition. Saracens were hungrier at the breakdown, better in defence and sharper in attack. It was obvious who wanted it more, and that team won.

Ulster must now move on. If they dwell on the loss then they run the risk of throwing away their Pro12 chances as well. With the start they had to the season, if they reached the end of May without a trophy to show for it then they will be incredibly disappointed. Thirteen games unbeaten going to waste would not be ideal for Mark Anscombe.

It wouldn’t lose him his job no but it would certainly cause him some concern that he couldn’t capitalise on Ulster’s great position.

It was failure to capitalise that cost Ulster in the Heineken Cup too. Ulster fans won’t be pleased to be reminded of the humiliating 10-9 defeat to Northampton at Ravenhill back in December, but they will now have to realise how badly it cost them. Had Ruan Pienaar kicked that late penalty, then Ulster would have been at home in the quarter-final, and all sides know exactly how important home advantage is in a European knock-out match.

It will be crucial for Anscombe to drill it into his players – this must not happen again. With three games to clinch that all important home semi-final and final in the Pro12, all three games are must win games, and they possibly have to win with bonus points too, otherwise Glasgow could snatch top spot away from them.

The visit of the Newport-Gwent Dragons is the perfect opportunity for Ulster to get back on track. They will be a wounded animal ready to prove that they are more than just Heineken Cup quarter-final standard and that they are Pro12 champions standard.

With no European competitions to worry about, there should be no excuses either. From here on in it should be full steam ahead looking to secure that top spot in the league. Obviously they would rather still be involved in the Heineken Cup, but with that no longer an option, it’s time for the Irish province to cut their losses and kick on domestically.

Admittedly it will be a task in itself because no matter how easy Ulster’s games look on paper, their three opponents are resilient sides. Connacht away is particularly nerve-wracking for Ulster as the Sportsground has been a bit of a bogey ground for them, and Connacht have already had some major scalps in Galway, none more so than hammering Leinster with a bonus point.

Cardiff are another side that can easily cause sides problems. Not doing so well this year, their side is still stocked full of internationals and world class players and when they click they can be lethal. Ulster will have to be at the top of their game to come away with two wins from those games, let alone the probably needed bonus points as well.

Ulster need to get a move on. Their up-and-down season has been a real rollercoaster and it’s now coming to an end. If they really want to finish a season on a high then they will have to focus, knuckle down, and target these final three games as big wins, otherwise they could end up away in another crucial knockout match, and we all know how well that went last time…

Entering the crunch stage of the season is always nervy for fans. It’s exhilarating, it’s exciting, and it always provides plenty of fireworks. Bring on the great rugby!

REVIVAL IN THE RDS

I left the RDS on Saturday night hoarse, light-headed, but very very happy. How on earth Ulster held out at the end I will never know, but they showed such determination and belief that if they had conceded it would probably have been an injustice.

Anybody doubting Ulster’s league credentials now is a fool – they are back. After five relatively lethargic performances over the Six Nations period, that match was a real statement of intent to the rest of the league. It was Ulster’s first win over Leinster in Dublin for fourteen years and it was Leinster’s first home defeat of the season.

It was a performance we won’t forget for a long time.

Terrific turnaround

I’m going to be brutally honest, I wasn’t giving Ulster much of a chance before the match began. With our terrible history in Dublin and our recent run of results I wasn’t full of confidence and I was there in faint hope rather than expectation. This was mirrored in Leinster fans’ views too with some even believing that a try bonus point wasn’t out of reach.

But fair play to every single player involved for Ulster, they played superbly and deserved the win. There were some great individual performances across the park, but collectively as a team Ulster were fantastic. They gelled well together, the moves they used were fluid and for the full eighty minutes they looked like a team who knew exactly what they were doing and what they needed to do.

First all, it must be mentioned how well both Ricky Lutton and Kyle McCall did at tighthead prop. Lutton making his first start was having to square up to Cian Healy, who many feel will be the Lions’ loosehead, and held his own brilliantly and even putting a bit of pressure on the Ireland prop. He was replaced by Kyle McCall, who carried on Lutton’s hard work in the scrum, and crucially held Sean Cronin up at the end of the match to hand Ulster the win. Two very good performances.

Where the game was won though was at the breakdown, and the return of two very influential players in Chris Henry and Rory Best. Their impact was evident very early on when both players attacked a ruck in the second minute and won a penalty for Ulster. You can say that Ulster’s foreign imports are the spine of the team, but Ulster’s home players make up the substance and do make a massive impact on games.

Therefore it’s very fitting that Ulster’s two tries were scored by two Irish qualified players. Even more fitting that they were two back row players as well. Robbie Diack and Iain Henderson both crashed over in the corner for their tries and for all of Ulster’s great play in the backs it was fully deserved.

It was heroic defence that helped as well, not just in the final moments, but throughout the entire match. Leinster didn’t have a clean break all match and it told on the scoreboard – two tries to none looks good for the Ulstermen, especially when they conceded six to the same side at Twickenham eleven months previous.

The result (and the performance) is the perfect preparation ahead of the Heineken Cup quarter-final and Ulster will head to London high on confidence. If they play like they did on Saturday night this weekend then Saracens will have trouble dealing with them, and it would set up another famous semi-final at the Aviva at the end of April.

To Twickenhill we go…

Saracens watch

Ahead of the Heineken Cup quarter-final next weekend, I thought it would be fair to look at how Saracens’ have been doing. And the bad news is they’ve been doing very well.

Saturday’s 22-13 victory away to the London Wasps maintained Sarries’ five point lead at the top of the Aviva Premiership after they wrestled the lead away from Harlequins two weeks ago. The London-based club also reached the semi-finals of the LV Cup, however they lost there to Sale Sharks.

They have been boosted by the early return of their England internationals though, as they welcomed back all of them for their match at Allianz Park against Exeter. This means they will have a week more of preparation than Ulster, and may prove vital when it comes to the quarter-final.

They will prove more than ample opposition.

Rabo round-up

Boy do Glasgow look like the real deal. A six try demolition of a more or less full strength Munster team proves that they deserve to be top of the league and they are a real threat in the league. They seem to be front runners for a home semi-final. As for Munster, the result epitomises their season – not good enough. There are many questions being asked ahead of their Heineken Cup clash with Harlequins.

As for the Welsh derbies in the Millennium, it was normal service as the Scarlets and the Ospreys boosted their chances of a spot in the play-offs with wins over the Dragons and Cardiff respectively. Meanwhile over in Italy, one game was postponed due to torrential rain, and the other may as well have been as Zebre and Edinburgh played out a boring match in which the away side triumphed 9-7.

As the race for the play-offs hots up, it could come all the way down to the wire…