Friday 29 March 2013

DUEL IN DUBLIN


It’s the big one of the season – Ulster v Leinster at the RDS!

Unfortunately for Ulster it has come at the wrong time as they haven’t found form since January. Going away to Leinster is undoubtedly the hardest away match in the league and when your players are short on match fitness and there are still a few missing through injury, it just makes the match that bit harder.

It will take everything Ulster have got to come away with anything…

Boys in Blue vs. White Knights
It’s slightly ironic to look back to only three or four years ago and this game would have been instantly written off as a home win. Indeed, most of the focus would be on the Leinster v Munster match which would take place at around the same time.

This season it is all change. After the Heineken Cup final last season, the pendulum has swung and it is now this match that all the focus is on, and it is no longer a home banker. When both sides play well, the match is one to behold and is worth the watch.

It is fitting therefore that the game is the week before the European quarter-finals since both sides will be putting out their best teams ahead of their respective knock-out matches. This means there will be no excuses for the team that loses. No holding back.

Therefore, Ulster’s players must be at the top of their games to even stand a chance of winning, that’s how good Leinster are. In fact, it is testament to how good that Leinster’s side is that they have fifteen players in their twenty-three that have been internationally capped, compared to Ulster’s eleven.

So Ulster must front up. The inclusion of Chris Henry at 7 shows that the breakdown will be crucial to who wins the game, and whichever side wins that battle will probably come away with the win. Both sides have the backs to win any match, it just depends who gets the quick, clean ball from the forwards.

What could cost Ulster the match is their rustiness. Players like Chris Henry, Roger Wilson and Iain Henderson are only just back from injury and to win in the RDS you need as strong a team as possible, and as fit as possible. The chances of Henry lasting the full 80 minutes is low, so Anscombe will have to prepare for when he has to come off.

Unfortunately I can only see this match going one way. As much as I want to see Ulster winning, with the form they are in, the opposition they face and the players they have unavailable I don’t think it’s possible. A good performance ahead of next week’s game and I think everyone at Ulster will be happy. Prediction – Leinster by 6.

Teams
Leinster have seven internationals returning into their starting line-up. Rob Kearney and Brendan Macken are brought into the back line while Joe Schmidt has changed his entire front row with Cian Healy and Mike Ross returning from international duty and Richardt Strauss coming back from injury to be hooker. Devin Toner starts ahead of Leo Cullen at lock and Ireland captain Jamie Heaslip returns at number eight.

Ulster make six changes to the side that lost to Edinburgh last weekend. There are two changes in the backs as Ruan Pienaar returns to scrum-half after injury and Craig Gilroy starts at wing. Rory Best lines up at hooker alongside Ricky Lutton who makes his first start at tighthead in the absence of John Afoa. Chris Henry and Nick Williams are brought into the back row after returning from injury.

Leinster Rugby vs. Ulster Rugby
Saturday 30th March, 18:15
RDS Arena, Dublin
RaboDirect Pro12, Round 19
Live on RTE TWO and BBC2 NI

LEINSTER RUGBY
15. Rob Kearney, 14. Dave Kearney, 13. Brendan Macken, 12. Gordon D’Arcy, 11. Isa Nacewa, 10. Ian Madigan, 9. Isaac Boss; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Richardt Strauss, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Devin Toner, 5. Quinn Roux, 6. Kevin McLaughlin, 7. Shane Jennings, 8. Jamie Heaslip (c).

16. Sean Cronin, 17. Jack McGrath, 18. Jamie Hagan, 19. Leo Cullen, 20. Rhys Ruddock, 21. John Cooney, 22. Andrew Goodman, 23. Andrew Conway.

ULSTER RUGBY
15. Jared Payne, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Stuart Olding, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. Ricky Lutton, 4. Johann Muller (c), 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry, 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Kyle McCall, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Iain Henderson, 21. Roger Wilson, 22. Paul Marshall, 23. Peter Nelson.

Referee: George Clancy (IRFU, 53rd competition game)
Assistant Referees: Leo Colgan, David Connolly (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: Murray White (IRFU)
TMO: Jude Quinn (IRFU)

Around the grounds
This weekend features the Millennium Magic matches in Wales where both Welsh derbies are held at the national stadium on Saturday. How will they go, and how about the others?

Zebre vs. Edinburgh Rugby – Away win
Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Rugby – Home win
Newport-Gwent Dragons vs. Scarlets – Away win
Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys – Away win
Benetton Rugby Treviso vs. Connacht Rugby – Home win

Tuesday 26 March 2013

SEASON OF TWO HALVES


Before I start I feel I must apologise for two things:

The first is my lack of posts. Unfortunately due to time constraints and other unseen factors I have not been able to post as often as I would have liked. However, hopefully this will be me back to posting every Tuesday and Thursday like before.

The second is Ulster’s poor form. After thirteen wins on the bounce, Ulster have now won just one of their last five matches and seem to be on a downward spiral. If they do not find some sort of form soon, their season could go down the drain.

Friday night was just a shambles…

Worrying times at Ravenhill
As I mentioned, what a turnaround Ulster have had. Back in December, Ulster fans were wondering if their side really was beatable. Now we have reached the end of March, they have thrown away an eleven point lead in the Pro12 and find themselves in third, a point behind provincial rivals Leinster.

It is worrying for Ulster fans, to say the least. To be in such a commanding position in both the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup, it is hard to see Ulster winning anything now. They just seem to be in that losing rut which they cannot seem to get out of, no matter how much they try.

It is a complete reversal to the start of the season where Ulster just couldn’t lose. It just goes to show how much mentality comes into play whenever you are on a run – Ulster are the embodiment of that. If you start winning, it is hard to lose. If you start losing, it’s hard to win again.

Ulster have to pick themselves up. There’s no point in moping over the last few games, that’ll get them nowhere. Rather they must look ahead with confidence. Next weekend is the eagerly anticipated interprovincial derby with Leinster and if Ulster can manage to pull of a miraculous win in Dublin then they can really head to Twickenham in high spirits.

And why not? Next week Ulster will have all of their internationals back, and there is no expectation to win. They can really cut loose ahead of that all-important Heineken Cup quarter-final away to Saracens and if they do manage to win then top spot in the league still isn't beyond them, even with the mid-season blip.

They need all those players back though. The absence of Chris Henry and Johann Muller has been badly felt and even though the latter returned against Edinburgh, his presence still wasn't enough to compel Ulster to the win. Ruan Pienaar was sorely missed at scrum-half too, even if his form isn't as good as it has been.

It shows where Ulster are really – first team to rival anybody’s, back up player not up to the standard. Injuries have limited Mark Anscombe’s hand obviously, but even so, the players he does have at his disposal should be putting away a side that lies tenth in the league.

In all honesty it was probably the tactics that Ulster got wrong. For the entire match they went along the back line trying to use the backs to break through. But that was the wrong idea because every time they did that they were met by a wall of black shirts blocking their path. Granted, the try did come from the backs but that was just once.

Instead, they should have looked to go through the forwards. There was one period in the second half where five pick-and-go drives gained them more yards than the backs had in the whole match. Yet for some reason, Ulster did not employ this tactic more often and instead kept trying through the backs. It was a poor call.

What is going wrong? I don’t know. All I know is things will have to pick up pretty soon. I don’t know how, and I don’t care how either. Ulster just need to start winning again. And fast.

In other news…
How disappointing was Ireland’s Six Nations campaign. Before the competition began I saw the potential for a Grand Slam with the fixtures Ireland had. How wrong I was because injuries and poor performances all over the shop ensured that Ireland would finish in a dismal fifth, only avoiding the wooden spoon courtesy of a better points difference than the French.

On the other hand, it’s congratulations to Wales who successfully defended their trophy. How ironic though that the side to deny them the Grand Slam was Ireland! But all credit to the Welshmen, they battled back from that opening weekend defeat and capped it all off with a crushing victory over England on the final day to seal their crown.

Although I didn’t see it, congratulations to Methody on winning the Schools’ Cup yet again after beating Inst at Ravenhill. Their results throughout the competition prove that they were deserving winners. Also, well done to Campbell on winning the Medallion Shield too after a deserved victory in the final.

Friday 8 March 2013

ALLEZ LES VERTS!


Ulster are off this week (sadly) so it looks like we’ll have to settle for international games instead, but luckily this week we have a cracker at the Aviva. It’s a game that only last year could have been a straight shoot-out for the championship, but this year both sides find themselves struggling.

In fact, whoever loses will be facing a Wooden Spoon match next weekend. Ireland could face a straight shoot-out for bottom spot in Rome against Italy, while France would have to avoid defeat away to Scotland in order to avoid finishing bottom of the Six Nations for the first time in the history of the competition.

There’s two ways this game could go…

Two teams, one loser
You would probably have expected me to say ‘one winner’ instead of ‘one loser’ yeah? Wrong. Being brutally honest, this match means absolutely nothing for the winner – both sides are out of the running for the overall championship. The only thing that the winner will get is the security that they cannot finish last in the table, and that’s not really much of a consolation.

As for the loser, as I mentioned, they will face a game next week that they didn’t want to face – a game to avoid finishing last. In fact, if France lose tomorrow then it will be a match they must win simply to get a point on the board!

So that makes tomorrow’s game even more important for both sides. And in my opinion there will be two ways this match will play out, if both sides realise they must win – it will either be a scrappy, low-scoring affair, or a game in which both sides will go all out for it.

All you have to do is watch French club rugby and you’ll realise that Les Bleus love to play an expansive running game, no matter what the weather. The selection of Toulouse utility back Maxime Medard would also suggest they are looking to play an exciting attacking brand of rugby. Medard is a player you don’t want running at you in a match near the try line.

In fact, the French side is stocked full of great players in all positions. Look no further than their inside centre Wesley Fofana who is arguably the best 12 in the world right now. They also have riches of talent at scrum-half as well with the choice between two fantastic players – Maxime Machenaud or Morgan Parra. They even have Freddie Michalak who can slot in there too.

But it is in the back row that France really have the upper hand. Their back three are undoubtedly one of the best back row combinations in the world, if not the best – Yannick Nyanga, Thierry Dusautoir and Louis Picamoles. Those three will completely dominate the breakdown tomorrow and unless the Irish back row is on top form, it could be a long evening for the guys in green.

Enough about France however, it is time to focus on the Irish because this is possibly the biggest match they have faced in the Six Nations so far – for the wrong reasons.

They are lucky that Cian Healy is back because he holds up the Irish scrum. Against Scotland, first Tom Court, then David Kilcoyne were both pulverised in the scrum. Having Healy back is a real boost for Ireland and will hopefully solidify their scrum. As usual, the side in the ascendancy at the set piece will usually go on and win.

But it will also be a big test for Paddy Jackson. After coming off the back of a horror kicking show against Scotland, it will be crucial for him to play well and reassure Ireland fans that he is the man for the job. If he plays the same way as he did two weeks ago out of hand then he will be fine, but his goal kicking must improve.

In my opinion, it is also Declan Kidney’s last chance to try and keep his job if it hasn’t gone already. Lose and I don’t think there’s any way back for the Cork man. Win, and he may stand a chance of being kept on as coach. However, it may not even be enough just to win. Losing at home to England, and then losing to Scotland too has probably hammered the final nails in his coffin. He has taken Ireland as far as he can.

I’m struggling at a prediction as I don’t know how the match will go this weekend. If it is a tight match then I’m leaning towards Ireland. A wide running match would suggest it will be a France win. In all honesty I should go for a draw! However, I will predict that home advantage will shade it for the Irishmen. Prediction – Ireland by 5.

Teams
Ireland make three personnel changes to the side that lost to Scotland two weeks ago. Craig Gilroy misses out through injury so he is replaced by Fergus McFadden on the wing. Cian Healy has had his ban overturned so he is back to take his place at loosehead prop, as is Mike McCarthy who returns from injury to play again at lock.

France also make three personnel changes, the most surprising being a recall for out of form fly-half Frederic Michalak, who replaces Francois Trinh-Duc. Maxime Medard makes his first start for the national side for nearly two years at wing in place of Benjamin Fall who drops out of the 23 altogether. The only other change is at centre with Florian Fritz coming in for Mathieu Bastareaud who drops to the bench. The forwards are unchanged from the match against England.

Ireland vs. France
Saturday 9th March, 17:00
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Six Nations, Round 4

Live on BBC1 and RTE TWO

IRELAND
15. Rob Kearney, 14. Fergus McFadden, 13. Brian O’Driscoll, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Keith Earls, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Conor Murray; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Rory Best, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Mike McCarthy, 5. Donnacha Ryan, 6. Peter O’Mahony, 7. Sean O’Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip (c).

16. Sean Cronin, 17. David Kilcoyne, 18. Stephen Archer, 19. Donncha O’Callaghan, 20. Iain Henderson, 21. Eoin Reddan, 22. Ian Madigan, 23. Luke Fitzgerald.

FRANCE
15. Yoann Huget, 14. Vincent Clerc, 13. Florian Fritz, 12. Wesley Fofana, 11. Maxime Medard, 10. Frederic Michalak, 9. Morgan Parra; 1. Thomas Domingo, 2. Benjamin Kayser, 3. Nicolas Mas, 4. Christophe Samson, 5. Yoann Maestri, 6. Yannick Nyanga, 7. Thierry Dusautoir (c), 8. Louis Picamoles.

16. Guilhem Guirado, 17. Vincent Debaty, 18. Luc Ducalcon, 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20. Antonie Claassen, 21. Maxime Machenaud, 22. Francois Trinh-Duc, 23. Mathieu Bastareaud.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes, Greg Garner (both England)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
Assessor: Clayton Thomas (Wales)

Tuesday 5 March 2013

HONOURS EVEN...


…but still not good enough for Ulster. Not even close to good enough. That’s now four matches Ulster have played during the Six Nations and they’ve only picked up nine of a maximum twenty points, and have now dropped to second in the Pro12. Overall it hasn’t been a very successful February for Ulster.

Two defeats to the Ospreys and Glasgow (two title challengers), a draw to Treviso and a win against Zebre. If you offered that at the start of February, I’m not sure Mark Anscombe would have shaken your hand. There is something not quite right at Ulster at the moment.

Something needs sorted…

At a loss for words
Before the start of February, Ulster only had one loss in the Pro12. Now they have three and one draw, and have lost their top spot in the league. That’s not good at all for Ulster considering the lead was eleven points and they were flying high at the top of the table.

In the absence of their main line back row, Ulster have been very light in the back row and unfortunately, despite all his good work earlier in the season, Anscombe has to take the blame for this as head coach. Even with the return of Iain Henderson from international duty, Ulster were still bullied at the breakdown and that is one of the main reasons why they’ve struggled so much recently.

That’s probably what’s most disappointing about the latest draw. Friday’s team was probably the strongest selected out of the last four games and yet Ulster still could not come away with the win – at home too. It’s always that little bit more disappointing when it’s at home.

Not only will the work at the breakdown upset the Ulster coach, but so will his side’s defence. For the third time this season Ulster shipped four tries in one match and in the end it resulted in their opponents gaining three match points compared to Ulster’s two. While not a terrible thing for Ulster, it certainly won’t feel too good looking back.

The kick-off taking was very poor too. Well, when I say taking, I actually mean retaining. Because every time, Mike Allen caught the ball and ran with it, only to be swamped by green shirts who turned the ball over. It was how Ulster conceded their final try and how they conceded the majority of their points. It has been a problem that has plagued Ulster for years and for some reason they still cannot get it right.

It still didn’t help though that Ulster had nearly twenty players missing due to injury or international duty. While all the absentees were not the reason Ulster failed to win, it certainly didn’t help their plight. Players such as Jared Payne and Nick Williams who wouldn’t have been missing but for injury could have proved vital for Ulster’s Pro12 matches during the Six Nations, and their absence is really felt.

While Ricky Andrew isn’t a poor back-up to Payne, it is obvious that Payne is just a step above him and then some. He adds that cutting edge to Ulster’s back line and finds gaps that don’t seem to be there. Andrew has a lot to learn before he is challenging Jared for his shirt. The same applies for Williams – he is such a big ball carrier nobody comes close to him in carrying yards. When he isn’t playing, Ulster struggle to make big inroads to opposition defences, and that is something they require for their New Zealand-styled game plan to work.

Back to the match however and on the other hand, there were plenty of positives to take – by far it was Ulster’s best performance this international period. The backs certainly did themselves proud, especially centres Stuart Olding and Darren Cave.

Olding has masses of potential, that’s easy to see. He took his try superbly and was constantly threatening the Treviso line all evening. Not just that but his general play was very positive and he was rewarded for it on several occasions. A real talent for the future.

In the pack, the scrum operated well and was in control for the entire match, as did the line-out. It certainly wasn’t a set-piece problem that let Ulster down. Herring didn’t lose a line-out all night, and the front row had their opposite numbers wrapped up all night. Unfortunately they could not make this advantage count.

To be fair to Treviso though, they came and they played some great rugby. Full-back Brendan Williams was superb in attack, openside flanker Dean Budd made the crucial breakthroughs for three of their four tries and kicker Alberto di Bernardo got the big kicks (except for the biggest one at the end!). It is fair to say that neither side deserved to lose.

And neither did, which won’t do either side much favours. As mentioned, Ulster have already thrown away an eleven point lead, and Treviso falter slightly in their chase for a slim chance of a play-off spot.

Where does this leave Ulster? In difficulties. After the next round of games they could return to the top of the Pro12 ladder, but after that it could go pear-shaped with a tricky away match against Leinster at the RDS. Mark Anscombe will have to get a lot of guys back quickly, or get the back-up guys playing well again, otherwise a home semi-final might be out of the window too.

Great game. Wrong result for both sides involved.

Friday 1 March 2013

ULSTER v TREVISO TEAMS


Ulster Rugby vs. Benetton Rugby Treviso
Friday 1st March, 19:05
Ravenhill
RaboDirect Pro12, Round 17

Live on BBC2 NI

ULSTER RUGBY
15. Ricky Andrew, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Stuart Olding, 11. Michael Allen, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. John Afoa, 2. Rob Herring, 3. Declan Fitzpatrick, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Mike McComish, 8. Robbie Diack.

16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. Ricky Lutton, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Ali Birch, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Niall O’Connor, 23. Chris Cochrane.

BENETTON RUGBY TREVISO
15. Brendan Williams, 14. Ludovico Nitoglia, 13. Luca Morisi, 12. Doppies la Grange, 11. Giulio Toniolatti, 10. Alberto di Bernardo, 9. Fabio Semenzato; 1. Alberto de Marchi, 2. Franco Sbaraglini, 3. Lorenzo Cittadini, 4. Valerio Bernabo, 5. Corniel van Zyl (c), 6. Robert Barbieri, 7. Dean Budd, 8. Christian Loamanu.

16. Giovanni Maistri, 17. Matteo Muccignat, 18. Jacobus Roux, 19. Marco Fuser, 20. Marco Filippucci, 21. Paul Derbyshire, 22. James Ambrosini, 23. Tomasso Iannone.

Referee: Andrew McMenemy (SRU, 20th competition game)
Assistant Referees: Paul Haycock, David Keane (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: Peter Ferguson (IRFU)
TMO: Simon McDowell (IRFU)